Il y a dix mois, le 24 septembre 2015,lorsqu ‘ un bombardier Russe fut abattu par l aviation Turque a la frontiere Turco-Syrienne,on eut l impression que le Nouveau Sultan de Turquie Recep Erdogan et le Tsar de Russie Vladimir Poutine allaient rapidement se trouver sur le sentier de la guerre . Dix mois plus tard ,alors que la tension est a son comble entre la Turquie et l Occident, en particulier avec les Etats Unis ,depuis la tentative de coup d etat avortee du 15 juillet dernier,Erdogan et Poutine viennent de faire un enorme pied de nez au camp occidental en scellant leur debut de reconciliation a St Petersbourg .
Il n en fallait pas plus pour susciter l inquietude et les interrogations des capitales occidentales concernant la Turquie ,membre de l Otan (au sein de laquelle, elle dispose de la deuxieme armee la plus puissante derriere celle des Etats Unis),membre du Conseil de l Europe, dont le role est vital pour endiguer le flot des refugies de Syrie d Irak et d Afghanistan qui continue de se deverser sur la vieille Europe.
Aujourd hui, Erdogan deballe a nouveau ses vieilles rancoeurs contre les Etats Unis et Obama qu il accuse 1/ de soutenir militairement ses ennemis Kurdes de Syrie et d Irak
2/ de proteger Fetullah Gullen ,ce religieux Turc vivant en exil a Philadelphie ,aux Etats Unis ,qui, selon lui ,serait l artisan du coup d etat manque.
Inutile de dire que dans un tel contexte ,Vladimir Poutine qui cherche a affaiblir l Otan et L Union Europeenne ,savoure son rapprochement avec Erdogan .
Personne n avait jusqu alors envisage un revirement aussi radical et spectaculaire dans les relations Turco -Russes ,d autant plus que depuis l insurrection anti Bachar el Assad qui est entree dans sa cinquieme annee,la Russie continue de soutenir contre vents et marees le regime du President Syrien,alors que la Turquie soutient les mouvements d opposition a Bachar el Assad ,comme le groupe Ahrar al Cham et continue d exiger son depart .
Reste a savoir maintenant comment les deux pays, allies de circonstance contre les Etats Unis ,pourraient trouver un terrain d entente au milieu d une situation regionale tres fluctuante .N ‘oublions pas que la Russie soutient les Kurdes de Syrie et qu Erdogan a besoin de Poutine pour empecher la creation d un etat Kurde autonome au Nord qui encouragerait l insurrection des Kurdes de Turquie .
Tout accord a venir entre les deux pays pourraient , en tout cas ,avoir d importantes repercussions au Moyen Orient et en Europe.
Erdogan espere profiter de l amelioration de ses relations avec Poutine et s en servir comme levier ou moyen de pression sur l Europe dans la crise des migrants .
Dans le meme temps Poutine voudrait amener Erdogan a le suivre dans son orbite Euroasiatique au niveau securitaire et commercial .
Erdogan s interesse enormement au Gazoduc :Turkish Stream  » de Gazprom .Son pays est le deuxieme client etranger de Gazprom derriere l Allemagne .
Turkish Stream doit s etendre au sud de l Europe,ce qui serait pour lui ,un autre moyen de se montrer incontournable aux yeux des Europeens .
Le President Turc veut clairement demontrer au camp occidental qu il a plus que jamais en mains plusieurs options strategiques .
Comme le declare Alexei Obratzov ,expert Russe de la Turquie interviewe par notre confrere Le Figaro : »Russes et Ottomans sont des heritiers de l Empire Byzantin ,leur desir mutuel d un rapprochement repose sur des interets bien compris .Des deux cotes ,on desire avoir a sa frontiere un voisin previsible a defaut d etre ami. Le retablissement des liens est donc parfaitement logique et souhaitable  »
Reste a savoir maintenant qui est le plus previsible entre Poutine ,le Mastermind du Kremlin ,Obama qui semble en roue libre jusqu a l election presidentielle du 8 Novembre prochain et Erdogan le nouvel ordonnateur sans partage de la Turquie .Vaste question a laquelle il est premature d apporter une reponse definitive tant notre monde devient de plus en plus fluctuant, trouble, instable ,voire incontrolable .

Turkey than more vere in the ERDOGAN’S era

There are ten months September 24, 2015, when a Russian bomber was shot down by Turkish warplanes on the border Turkish-Syrian, one had the impression that the new Sultan of Turkey Recep Erdogan and the Tsar of Russia Vladimir Putin went quickly be on the warpath. Ten months later, when the tension is at its height between Turkey and the West, particularly with the United States since the abortive state of attempted coup of July 15, Erdogan and Putin just made a huge walk nose to the Western camp by sealing their reconciliation was the beginning of St Petersburg.
It n was enough to arouse anxiety and questions in Western capitals about Turkey, a member of NATO (in which, it has the second army’s most powerful behind that of the US), Board Member the Europe, whose role is vital to stem the flow of refugees from Syria to Iraq and Afghanistan continues to pour over old Europe.
Today, Erdogan again unpacked his old resentment against the United States and that he accuses Obama 1 / militarily support his Kurdish enemies of Syria and Iraq
2 / to protect Fethullah Gullen, this religious Turk living in exile in Philadelphia, the United States, which he said would be the architect of the state of sudden shortage.
Needless to say, in this context, Vladimir Putin seeks to weaken NATO and L Union Europeenne, enjoys his reconciliation with Erdogan.
Nobody had until then considering a radical and dramatic change in Turco -Russes relations, all the more since the anti Bashar Assad uprising which came in his fifth year, Russia continues to support against winds and tides of the regime Syrian President, while Turkey supports the opposition movements of Bashar al-Assad, as Ahrar al-Sham group and continues to demand his departure.
It remains to know now how the two countries, occasional allies against the US, could find a Fever Pitch in the middle of a very fluctuating regional position .N Let us not forget that Russia supports the Syrian Kurds and that Erdogan needs Putin to prevent the creation of an independent Kurdish state in the north that would encourage the insurrection of Kurds in Turkey.
Any agreement has come between the two countries could, in any case, have important implications for the Middle East and Europe.
Erdogan hopes to benefit from the improvement of its relations with Putin and s use as leverage or leverage on Europe in the crisis of migrants.
At the same time Putin would bring Erdogan follow him into his orbit the Eurasian safe and commercially.
Erdogan s enormously interested in Pipeline: Turkish Stream « Gazprom .Its country is the second foreign customer of Gazprom behind the German.
Turkish Stream s should extend to the south of Europe, which would be for him, another way to show indispensable in the eyes of Europeans.
The Turkish President will clearly demonstrate the Western camp that he more than ever hands several strategic options.
As stated Alexei Obraztsov, Russian expert of Turkey interviewed by our confrere Le Figaro: « Russians and Ottomans are heirs of the Byzantine Empire, their mutual desire for reconciliation based on interests .Des understand both sides, we have desire has its border neighbor predictable in default to be friend. The restoration of links is therefore perfectly logical and desirable  »
It remains to know now which is the most predictable between Putin, the mastermind of the Kremlin, Obama seems coasting until al presidential election on 8th November and the new officer Erdogan undivided Turkey .Vaste question which it is premature to provide a definitive answer as our world becomes increasingly fluctuating disorder, unstable or uncontrollable.